Covid by Dave

Mass Covid 19 update. Mixed news to report today. Cases ticked up, to 2,252, but that's probably because they did twice as many tests as yesterday, 115,453 to be exact, and that lowered the Positive Test Rate down to 2.0%, which is the lowest it's been in six days. Deaths ticked up, to thirty six. Total Confirmed Cases: 593,412 Total Confirmed Deaths: 16,886 Had a better day in the hospitals today. Twenty one people got out of the hospital and three got out of the ICU. That brings those numbers down to 690 and 169, respectively.

Mass Covid 19 update. Mixed news today. Deaths are low but hospitalizations are going up, which is not good. Cases ticked up, to 1,683, and they did a few more tests, 59,818 to be exact, so the Positive Test Rate dipped down to 2.8%. Deaths stayed low, at eighteen. Total Confirmed Cases: 591,160 Total Confirmed Deaths: 16,850 Thirty six more people went into the hospital today, and thirteen more went into the ICU. That brings those numbers up to 711 and 172, respectively.

I did a chart for US Covid cases, but it only went back six weeks, which obscures the larger trend, which is downward, followed by six weeks of plateau. I was just showing the plateau period earlier so the uptick looked significant. In this wider-angle view it doesn't look as impactful. In order to show this, I did a chart including the last dozen weeks and it shows how we had a steady decline prior to the plateau.

Really, really good news on the vaccination front. The CDC announced today research that they did on thousands of vaccinated health care workers, and that research determined that if you're vaccinated, you DON'T GET INFECTED, which means you can't pick up an asymptomatic infection and spread the disease to others. This is HUGE NEWS. Not only does the vaccine prevent people from getting sick and dying, it prevents infection that will spread the disease, so that's totally fantastic news.

Somebody said that the Mass cases increase mirrored the national trend, so I did a chart for the whole country over the last six weeks and yes indeed, the uptick is very similar over the past two weeks.

Did a chart for the last six weeks worth of Covid cases in Massachusetts to see where we are at. Seems like cases are on the uptick again, sadly.

Mass Covid 19 update. Mixed news today. Low number of deaths but pretty much everything else sucks. Cases dipped down, to 1,464, but they only did 41,771 tests, so the Positive Test Rate jumped up to 3.5%, which is not good. My theory is that when they do fewer tests they get a higher percentage of people who are symptomatic so are trying hard to get a test. Who knows, but I did an analysis and in the last 25 days, the days we had 90,000+ tests (16) the Positive Test Rate is 1.7%. The days we had 77,000 or fewer tests (9) the Positive Test Rate is 2.5%. Deaths ticked down, to fifteen. The overall deaths trend has been pretty good. The past three weeks we've averaged 229 deaths a week. The three weeks before that we were averaging 334 deaths a week. The three weeks before that we were averaging 447 deaths a week. So the trend is good. Total Confirmed Cases: 589,477 Total Confirmed Deaths: 16,832 Bad day in the hospitals. Eighteen more people went into the hospital and eighteen more

Last year, both Brazil and the US had asshole Presidents who did as much as possible to be as harmful as possible during the pandemic. Fortunately for the US, we had an election and were able to dump the guy. Not so much in Brazil (although Lula just got out of jail and was allowed to run again, so that may happen at some point), and Bolsonaro continues to fuck up the Covid response beyond words, so Brazil is now suffering. They are experiencing rising caseloads and dramatically rising deaths over the past several weeks even as much of the world is experiencing a decline in cases and deaths.

Mass Covid 19 update. Moderate news to report today. Cases ticked down, to 1,817, but that's probably because they only did 75,179 tests. The Positive Test Rate has been ticking up the last few days and it hit 2.4% today. Deaths ticked down, to twenty nine. Total Confirmed Cases: 588,013 Total Confirmed Deaths: 16,817 Three more people went into the hospital today, and two got out of the ICU. That brings those numbers to 657 and 141, respectively.

I've been studying the pandemic for a while now, and in Massachusetts, it can be broken down into three phases. Phase One, April and May - The initial burst We had 96,965 cases, 9,823 hospitalizations and 6,846 deaths Our Covid Hospitalization rate was 10.1%. Our Covid Mortality Rate was 7% in this phase. Phase Two - June through September - The lull We had 35,151 cases, 2,863 hospitalizations and 2,610 deaths. Our Covid Hospitalization rate was 8.1%. Our Covid Mortality Rate was 7.4% in this phase. Phase Three - October through now - The Resurgence We had 454,080 cases (wow!) 7,314 hospitalizations and 6,662 deaths. Our Covid Hospitalization rate was 1.6%. Our Covid Mortality Rate was 1.5% in this phase. So as you can see, despite the huge number of cases, the outcomes have actually been much better in Phase Three. It looks like we're entering the fourth phase, which would be another lull. Hope that trend continues.

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