Mortality Rate Analysis

Massachusetts has recently experienced a huge surge in Covid cases, completely reversing earlier gains in suppressing the virus. The only blessing is that it appears to be VASTLY less deadly than it used to be.

The most recent surge in cases can be traced back to November 6th. That was the first day since way back in the beginning that we hit 2,000 cases in a day. Since then we've had 195,000 cases.

By November 6th we had only had 162,500 cases at that point.

If you figure that everyone who's going to die of Covid that got it by November 6th would die by December 6th, that puts us at a total of 10,805 deaths. That many deaths divided by 162,500 cases gives you a mortality rate of 6.6%.

Since then 1,020 deaths divided by 195,000 cases gives you a mortality rate of one half of one percent. That's THIRTEEN TIMES less likely a chance to die if you catch Covid now compared to if you caught it before November 6th.

Now the mortality rate has been declining for a while so this didn't happen overnight, but the numbers tell a very clear story. If the mortality rate hadn't declined, we would have experienced 12,870 deaths since November 6th instead of 1,020.

So at least we have something to be thankful for going into this new year.

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